COP28: success or cop-out?

The COP28 United Nations climate conference, held a few months ago in Dubai, is being heralded as a historic achievement by some and a ‘cop out’ by others. 

As a part of the Global Renewables Alliance delegation, I was proud to attend the 28^th instalment of the conference, which proclaimed the end of the fossil fuel era. There were significant commitments for renewable energy and the transition away from fossil fuels to achieve net zero by 2050. 

Australia’s voice was included in the resounding support for the Global Renewables Alliance’s call to double energy efficiency and triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, to at least 11,000 GW. 

This marked the first time the role of renewables in tackling the climate challenge was officially acknowledged. All parties’ commitment to scale the fastest, cheapest and most mature solutions for rapid decarbonisation and the recognition of the importance of wind, solar and storage was a world-first. 

For many however, a successful COP28 outcome would have also committed the world to the ‘phase out’ of fossil fuels to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. 

After all, the results of the first Global Stocktake were clear – we are not on track to keep global warming below 1.5°C or even 2°C. More effective support for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in line with the latest science are needed, including finance flows, and technical and capacity building to support countries that need it. 

Critics of the final agreement included Pacific nations, as they are on the front line of climate impacts. Island nations are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and are the first of the world’s climate refugees. Pacific advocates did not believe the wording went far enough to compel rapid action and were disappointed at the lack of commitment to phase out fossil fuels.

Reaching an equitable consensus is difficult when the economic, environmental and social impacts of climate change are not evenly dealt. 

Encouragingly, the Australian Government has committed to supporting the peoples of the Pacific through the Pacific Resilience Facility and the Green Climate Fund.

Australia is also in the process of developing our first national transition plan to net zero, with decarbonisation pathways for our major economic sectors. The question we need to keep asking is ‘how can we drive a just transition?’.

The devil is in the detail. Each nation has its own situation, and our Nationally Determined Contributions and sectoral decarbonisation pathways will show us a way in Australia.

We need to forge a new era of economic productivity. We are still blessed with the natural resources needed for future energy systems, including sun and wind for renewable energy and critical minerals such as lithium and copper.

We are a wealthy country but our competitiveness and prosperity in a net-zero economy is not assured. It will depend on how we position our economy over the next decade and beyond.

We can’t just rest on our laurels and hope for the best. We need a clear plan that is adaptive and responsive to external forces. Key actions needed to accelerate meaningful change towards a greener economy include targeted climate finance, fast-tracking renewables, phasing down coal-fired power and keeping equity and justice front-of-mind. 

It’s no secret that phasing down coal-fired power will necessitate scrapping plans for new coal-powered stations and accelerating early retirement of coal power stations. Arup’s view is that many coal power stations in Australia are on a ‘not if but when’ timeline and the urgency of that timeline is increasing.

We need to bring the whole world on the journey. One of the key takeaways from COP28 is the need to bridge the divides that currently exist – from geopolitical to geographic differences. The unequal impacts of climate change on regions like the Pacific Islands cannot be ignored if we are to address the problem with a truly global approach. There is also a clear divide that needs to be negotiated between resources-based economies and energy importers.

Equity also applies to the important contribution of indigenous peoples as part of the COP28 Indigenous Peoples Dialogue. Indigenous peoples have a wealth of knowledge in caring for the earth and while they comprise less than five per cent of the world’s population, they protect 80 per cent of the remaining global biodiversity.

The eyes of the world could soon be more squarely focused upon our climate efforts. Australia is bidding to co-host COP31 with the Pacific, thus putting Australian governments, companies and institutions on the global climate stage – an extremely positive step toward delivering real action.