Decoupling prosperity from resource extraction: A roadmap for global action based on the Global Resources Outlook 2024

Natural resources are the foundation of our economies and societies. Throughout history, access to and control over these resources has been closely linked to the level of wellbeing achieved by nations. This dynamic has also driven geopolitical strategies, with resource-consuming countries often seeking political dominance over resource-rich countries – a pattern that has repeatedly led to instability, insecurity, and even conflict and war. The continuing history of the "colonialisation of nature" is central to questions of fairness and equity.

The UN Agenda 2030 and its Sustainable Development Goals were adopted in 2015 by 193 world leaders as a global commitment to balance economic, social and environmental priorities – a blueprint for peace and prosperity on a finite planet. 

A decade later, that vision is faltering. Humanity has according to science already crossed six of nine planetary boundaries, moving beyond our “safe operating space”, and over a billion people still live in poverty. Although action on sustainable development has not stalled entirely, the basis for any further progress is slipping away. Multilateral systems are fragmenting, geopolitical tensions are rising, and a global race for resources is intensifying. German philosopher Hegel best explaining the uncertainty around us saying, “The only thing we can learn from the history, is that we learn nothing from history.” Failure to find an adequate response will – according to convincing studies – take a vast economic tall. Climate change alone could cut global GDP per person by at least 19 per cent within 25 years – and up to 50 per cent later this century, warn experts.

At the heart of these crises lies an overlooked driver: our (over)use of materials – everything we extract from the Earth, including biomass, metals, minerals and fossil fuels. The Global Resources Outlook 2024 (GRO24) shows that material extraction has risen from 30 billion tonnes in 1970 to 106.6 billion in 2024. While this has supported development, especially in high-income countries, it has come at a steep cost: sourcing and processing materials drive over 60 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than 90 per cent of land-related biodiversity loss and water stress, and 40 per cent of particulate matter pollution. If trends continue, demand could rise another 60 per cent by 2060. What would be the consequences, we can hardly imagine. 

Clearly, policy and industry models must change course. At the heart of the transformation lies the need to move away from an economic model built on unlimited material growth. Instead, we must build systems that are ecologically sustainable and socially just – using materials more efficiently and ensuring that everyone’s basic needs are met. In short, we must decouple material extraction from human wellbeing. 

This is possible – and GRO24 outlines a path forward. It calls for a transition toward circular, resource-efficient economies that prioritise accessible and high-quality solutions for housing, mobility, food and energy – four human needs responsible for roughly 90 per cent of all demand for materials. Realising this vision requires governments and industries to broaden their focus: from cleaner production to efficient and equitable material consumption. 

This shift can – according to IRP modelling – reduce projected global material extraction by around 30 per cent by 2060 compared to historical trends, contributing to a more than 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2020 and the protection of biodiversity. The benefits would extend across societies – creating cleaner, fairer, and more resilient economies.

Yet, despite the strength of the evidence, momentum for such a shift remains inadequate in both policy and business. So how can we change that? 

International organisations, including UN agencies, multilateral and regional development banks, and trade and economic organisations, must take the lead. As stewards of global cooperation, they must take a more proactive role in accelerating sustainable material use and the circular economy globally, by driving systemic action. Global security, a fairer approach to prosperity, and any prospect of a liveable future, directly depend on it. 

While GRO24 presents a comprehensive agenda and recommendations, international institutions must lead in four missions.

Better orientation: Australia’s Circular Economy Framework includes a target to reduce the country’s material footprint, aiming to cut overall material use. While this is a welcome step, there is still no globally shared understanding of what constitutes a sustainable level of material use – and progress on this has somewhat stalled. Establishing a scientifically grounded global reference point – expressed in tonnes per capita across all material types – could guide global action, much like the “net zero” emissions goal has aligned joint progress on climate change. By addressing wasteful production and consumption patterns, in particular in high-income countries, and by bringing attention to demand side solutions, we can build real momentum for transformative shifts in policy and business models. 

Better measurement: Countries need indicators that measure the ability of systems for housing, mobility, food and energy to meet people’s needs in material-efficient ways. These indicators would make it easier to monitor progress, encourage innovation, and reward better performance in the economy to decouple human wellbeing from material extraction.

Better economic incentives: Policy and fiscal reforms are required to internalise environmental and social costs of material extraction in material prices. Moreover, harmful subsidies need to be phased out, most urgently for fossil fuels but also in agriculture –  amounting to trillions of dollars every year. In short, we should stop stimulating extraction-based economic success and reward responsible and innovative ways of meeting human needs.

Better transparency and coordination: Decision-makers in policy, business and finance lack access to consolidated, regularly updated and high-quality data and analyses on material flows and their impacts, impeding progress on sustainable materials management. One promising option to change this is the establishment of an International Materials Agency, which would ideally be hosted by a resource-rich country. 

Through greater collaboration on these four missions, we can place sustainable material use firmly in policy thinking and redefine success. Abstract as that may sound, this can build resilient economic systems by using the world’s material wealth more efficiently and fairly.

To quote GRO24: “With decisive action, political courage and bold boardroom decisions, a sustainable future - meaning a decent life for all within planetary boundaries - is possible.”