A recent Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) report notes that since 1990 the trend in prices of liquefied natural gas exports and crude oil have been similar, and that since 2003 thermal coal export prices have also moved in a similar (upward) direction. The most comprehensive recent assessment of the outlook for the non-oil energy industry in Australia is set out in the September quarter 2005 ABARE Australian Commodities forecast. ABARE’s forecasts are made against expected growth in the world economy slowing from 4.9 per cent in 2004 to 3.9 per cent in 2005 and 3.8 per cent in 2006, with world oil prices remaining around US$58. In this environment Australian natural gas production and export volumes are expected to grow strongly again in 2006 with a significant increase in export values. Growth in demand for thermal coal is expected to ease in 2006, associated with slower growth in electricity demand. The key ABARE energy sector forecasts are set out in the following table.
|
2004–05 |
2005–06 | |
|
% |
% | |
|
Crude oil and condensate |
|
|
|
Production |
–12.7 |
7.3 |
|
Export volume |
–10.2 |
14.0 |
|
Export value |
25.2 |
42.8 |
|
Natural gas |
|
|
|
Production |
11.4 |
9.7 |
|
Export volume |
33.9 |
24.9 |
|
Export value |
47.1 |
48.9 |
|
LPG |
|
|
|
Production |
–0.3 |
1.3 |
|
Export volume |
–2.5 |
1.5 |
|
Export value |
24.3 |
22.6 |
|
Thermal coal |
|
|
|
Production |
1.0 |
2.0 |
|
Export volume |
–0.3 |
2.4 |
|
Export value |
44.9 |
10.9 |
Source: Australian Commodities Forecasts and Issues Vol. 13, No. 3, September quarter 2005, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics